Busia Governor’s Race: Otuoma Leads at 66% in New Bobea Poll

The poll, released on October 5, 2026, puts Otuoma ahead of his two named challengers, with Arthur Osia at 22 per cent and Engineer Vincent Sidai at eight per cent. Four percent of respondents were undecided when the survey was conducted.

The figures give Otuoma a 44-percentage-point gap over Osia in the poll's stated voter preferences.

However, the numbers represent a snapshot of opinion at the time of the survey and do not constitute a forecast of the eventual 2027 election outcome. The campaign period is still some distance away, and voter preferences can change.

A county divided along regional lines

The most striking feature of the survey is the geographical pattern emerging behind the countywide figures.

According to Bobea Research, Otuoma leads in five of Busia's seven constituencies—Matayos, Nambale, Butula, Funyula, and Budalangi—recording more than 60 percent support in each of those constituencies.

Osia's strongest showing is reported in the two Teso constituencies, Teso North and Teso South, where he leads the field.

Engineer Sidai is reported to finish second in both of those constituencies.

The pattern provides an early indication of the regional dynamics that could shape the gubernatorial contest, although the poll does not by itself establish how those preferences will translate into votes on election day.

The numbers

Candidate

Support

Paul Otuoma

66%

Arthur Osia

22%

Eng. Vincent Sidai

8%

Undecided

4%

The poll therefore records more than nine in every ten respondents expressing a preference for one of the three named candidates.

Bobea Research describes its work as public opinion and market research covering Kenya's counties. Reports on the survey say the organization uses multi-stage stratified sampling and face-to-face fieldwork.

A race that is still open

Despite the size of the gap recorded in the poll, the 2027 contest remains politically fluid.

The survey comes at a relatively early stage of the electoral cycle, leaving room for candidates to consolidate their bases, build alliances, respond to emerging issues, and seek support in areas where they currently trail.

For Otuoma, the figures provide a measurement of his current standing across the county. For Osia, the Teso results point to areas where his support is strongest, while Sidai's countywide figure shows a smaller share of stated support in this particular survey.

The more consequential question as the contest develops will be whether the regional patterns identified by the poll remain stable as campaigning intensifies.

For now, the Bobea Countywide Tracker has placed the three contenders at 66 percent, 22 percent, and 8 percent, with four percent of respondents yet to make up their minds.